Dear Investor,
Did you listen?
On the morning of October 4th, the 10-Year Treasury yield was at 3.18%. That same morning, at 7:46am ET, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough sent “Early Look” subscribers the following (prescient) insight:
“We’re forecasting Quad 4 in Q4.
The US labor market remains classic #LateCycle, but if you’re looking for pending headline-tourist-news that gets consensus to believe their record net SHORT position in the 10yr Treasury, this should be a big part of that short-term narrative.
That’s the short-term. If you’re an intermediate-to-long-term investor who is trying to pivot from Quad 2 (long either US or Global Growth) into long duration (low beta Fixed Income), this is a better time and price to do so than any other time in the last 3 years.”
A lot of people thought Keith and our macro team were crazy.
In fact, just the week before (and shortly after) McCullough issued his contrarian call on bonds, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach, the “Bond King” himself, was all over the news warning people that US Treasury yields were heading higher—much higher—to around 3.6%.
Fast forward to today. The 10-year has fallen below 3.00%. It is sitting around 2.87% as of this writing. Quad4 is unfolding our eyes.
And to be clear, our call remains the same for now.
Below is some smart Weekend Reading to keep you proactively prepared for the next big market move.
- [MACRO INSIGHT] Early Look: Still Quad Four
- [RISK MANAGEMENT VIDEO] “The Macro Show” with Keith McCullough: 12/6/18
- [MACRO VIDEO INSIGHT] How We Model the U.S. Economy
- [RISK LEVELS] Risk Ranges: Friday December 7th
- [PROCESS] Hedgeye's "Understanding" Videos
- [NEW PODCAST] IN THE ARENA
Happy reading and have a great weekend!
다만 금리가 현재 2008년 이전 수준으로 정상화되지 않았기 때문에, 양적완화를 재개하고 금리를 내릴 때 US dollar 가치가 더 떨어지면 reserve currency로써 위상을 지켜내기 더 어려워질 수도 있습니다. 최악의 상황에는 군사력으로 지켜낼 수도 있겠지만 중국, 러시아가 보유중인 US 정부채권을 지금처럼 계속 팔아버리면 미국정부도 부채부담을 돌려막기로 견뎌내는 데 한계가 올 겁니다.
다 부질없는 시대가 진짜로 올지 좀 무섭습니다 와치독님은 금이나 은을 구입하거나 하셨는지요 ㅋㅋ 그냥 개인적인 호기심입니다 감사합니다
저는 개인적으로 goldmoney.com을 이용해서 금을 삽니다. Vault는 토론토와 오타와에 있구요.
제가 알아본 바로는 금 거래시 프리미엄이 spot price에서 0.5% 수준으로 가장 저렴합니다.