Climbing costs cool migtation to Alberta 

Alberta's overheated economy -- fuelling huge increases in inflation and housing costs -- is beginning to lose sorely needed workers to Saskatchewan and British Columbia, figures released Thursday indicate.

Statistics Canada's population update shows Alberta had a net gain of 7,400 people from other provinces during the first three months of 2007, a 53 per cent drop from last year's record levels for the same period.

"What we are seeing is the growth in Alberta is still strong but there is a bit of a slow-down," said Hubert Denis, a population analyst for the federal agency.

"The main reason is people are leaving to B.C. and Saskatchewan."

Denis said Saskatchewan is gaining significant numbers of people at Alberta's expense for the first time since 1984 -- when Wild Rose Country was reeling from the previous oil boom's downward spiral.

Alberta business owners say the figures reflect the critical problems they are having in attracting staff.

"What worries me about those statistics is it looks as though it's not going to get any better," said Danielle Smith, director of provincial affairs for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, which represents small- and medium-sized businesses.

Alberta still led all other provinces for population growth in the first quarter of 2007, increasing 0.57 per cent, or more than twice the national average, but the growth rate was down significantly from the same stretch in 2006.

Provincial officials contend the numbers are healthy, noting Alberta's figures are still the best in the country.

"You've got to keep it in perspective," said James Frey, spokesman for Alberta Employment, Immigration and Industry.

"We're still getting more people. We're still seeing the fastest increases out of any province."

However, Richard Corriveau, an economist with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, believes Alberta is seeing some of the results from the rapid increases in housing prices. He thinks it's one factor that is going to inhibit the province's ability to attract migrants in the future.

"A couple of years ago, Alberta surpassed Ontario as the second-most expensive market in the country, and we're very quickly closing in on B.C.," he said.

Calgary's vacancy rate sits at 0.5 per cent and city rents increased by an average of 18 per cent last year -- with no end in sight for future increases and loss of rental units to condo conversions. And the average price of a single-family home in Calgary is now approaching $500,000.

At the end of May, the average price of a single-family house stood at $487,523 -- a 17.25 per cent increase compared to the May 2006 figure of $415,815.

At Statistics Canada, Denis said he is assuming it is people who are originally from B.C. or Saskatchewan going back to their home provinces after working in Alberta for a spell.

"Now we see that there's a kind of reflux," Denis said. "They made their money maybe, and it's time to go back."

In the last three months of 2006, Saskatchewan saw a net gain of 128 people. And then in the first quarter of 2007, that figure jumped to 769 people.

As of Monday, you can count Kyle Crowder, 32, and his girlfriend Katie Domm, 24, as two more lost to Saskatchewan.

Domm is originally from Regina and Crowder is from Creston, B.C. They are moving from Calgary to Saskatoon so Domm can attend medical school at the University of Saskatchewan.

Crowder -- who is an excavating machine operator -- already has a job lined up after choosing from three offers.

The couple says they chose Saskatchewan because of the sense of community in the province and because it is a good place to raise a family. There's a good chance they will remain there after Domm is finished medical school in four years. In Calgary, they haven't been able to afford a house.

Although they both say they love the mountains and the city, Crowder said "it's just getting too expensive and the traffic is out of control."

Saskatchewan Premier Lorne Calvert didn't brag when he heard the statistics showing Saskatchewan's gains Thursday, but said he is "pleased" with the trend. The premier said people are coming back primarily for Saskatchewan's robust economy and, secondly, for quality of life and affordability issues.

Business advocates believe there is a connection between the labour shortages and the affordable-housing crunch.

"We see it as part of the labour shortage, which is our number-one issue," Heather Douglas, president of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

"For the first time in the chamber's 116-year-old history, affordable housing has hit our top-five priorities."

CFIB's Smith said it's "very troubling" to see the in-migration numbers falling off when workers are so badly needed. She said the fact is Alberta may just have to rely more on temporary foreign workers.

Statistics Canada's report showed Alberta had big gains in international migration, with 7,384 people coming to the province, up nearly 40 per cent.

Neither business organization supports the idea of rent controls, but believe there are other ways governments could improve the situation, like reducing red tape for apartment building construction or secondary suites.