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미국을 비롯한 글로벌 경기가 recession 위기에 놓여있기 때문에 근본적으로 금리를 올릴 수 없는 상황입니다.
그래서 Fed에서 많이 올려봐야 0.25%-0.5% 이상을 넘길 수 없을 것 같습니다. Fed의 신뢰도 회복을 위한 결정이라는 의미가 더 많기 때문에 (올해에 수 차례 인상하겠다는 말만 하고 못 했죠), 금리인상 결정 이후 증권시장에 부정적인 결과가 나타나면 그 때 또 QE, helicopter money 같은 금융정책을 내 놓을 가능성이 있겠죠.
만약 금리를 이번에도 안 올린다면 금값 상승세가 이어질 겁니다.
아래는 매달 받아보는 Jim Rickards의 newsletter와 Peter Schiff의 지난 달 podcast 입니다. 관련 주제에 대한 분석 및 전망이고요, 캐나다 부동산 시장에는 어떻게 반영될 지 잘 모르겠지만 일단 4분기 실적발표 이후를 지켜봐야할 것 같네요. 사우디가 oil production cap에 대한 얘기를 꺼내긴 했지만, 약속을 지킬 지는 미지수니까 말입니다.
Jim Rickard's Strategic Alliance
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B9xQpPxRa4XwUnRibElyR2pnalk
Damned If They Do And Damned If They Don’t – Ep. 196
http://www.schiffradio.com/damned-if-they-do-and-damned-if-they-dont-ep-196/
This morning the Federal Open Market Committee began its 2-day meeting, where they’re supposedly going to discuss raising interest rates for the second time
We’re going to get the official announcement of their decision on Wednesday
Most likely there will be no surprise, that they won’t raise interest rates
But it will be the statement at the press conference that follows; that’s typically where you can get more market-moving insights
I said they’re supposedly going to be discussing whether or not they are going to raise rates, but you would think that if they were going to raise rates, they’d know it before the meeting started
But I don’t think they’re going to discuss whether or not they’re going to raise rates; I think they know they’re not going to raise rates
What they’re going to discuss is the bind they’re in
It’s like they’re damned if they do and they’re damned if they don’t
On the one hand, market expectations went way up for a while, on a September rate hike
Based on Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech, where she said, “The case for a rate hike had strengthened.”
Then later that day, another Fed official reiterated that there was nothing in Janet Yellen’s speech that would rule out a rate hike in either September or December or both!
Based on that, market expectations ramped up
Of course, the Fed also claims to be data dependent, and the data over the past month has been lousy
Even though the Fed has not gone out of its way to recognize the bad data, probably for political reasons
The data has been bad, so the case for a rate hike has weakened, although Janet Yellen herself has not uttered those words
You’ve had some other Fed officials come out and pay lip service to that effect more recently because the market started to fall so the doves came flying to the rescue to save the market
But here’s the conundrum: if they don’t raise rates, which I think is the more likely option, then the Fed will have cried wolf again
If they do raise rates, it belies Janet Yellen’s “Data Dependent” credo
In reality, they should be raising rates regardless of the data, because rates are too low
These low rate are creating a problem
It doesn’t matter whether the economy is weak or strong, rates need to go up
In fact, I would argue that the economy is weak because rates are so low
Rates have to go up before we can have a real recovery
Of course, before we can have a real recovery, we have to prick this bubble and end the phony recovery
To have real economic growth, we’re going to have to have a crash first
If we want the gain, we have to endure the pain
But nobody wants the pain so we never get any gain
If the Fed were to raise rates despite the data, it looks like they’re not data dependent
If they don’t raise rates without acknowledging that the data is weak
If they continue to pretend that the economy is fine, and continue to hint at future rate hikes
The Fed loses more credibility
That is what they are more likely to do: why would they take a chance on raising rates on Wednesday
Knowing A) How weak the data is, and B) knowing that it is possible that the markets could tank as a result of that hike
That’s the last thing they want, because, then what are they going to do?
How are they going to reverse the decline? Cut rates?
Clearly the Fed wants to punt again and delay the decision to December
This will mean that they barked again but they didn’t bite
That’s what they’re talking about: “How do we thread this needle? How to we make the perfect statement that will still pretend the recovery is on track and still justify not raising interest rates?”
“We have to still say we’re data dependent and keep the prospect of a rate hike alive for December.”
I think that is a dangerous strategy
If the Fed is successful in saying we’re not going in September but we’re probably going to go in December
I don’t think the market’s going to like that
Just a couple of months is not going to do it
If the only reason the Fed is not hiking is because of the election, and once the election is over, the hikes are going to start, and the Fed is going to start hiking rates more in 2017, the markets are going to tank
I think what the Fed really has to do, is not only not raise rates in September but reduce the expectation for a rate hike in December, all without undercutting the narrative of economic recovery, yet claim to be data dependent
We’ll see if they go that route, they would have to say to everybody, “This is the last hike.”
They would have to take all future rate hikes off the table to take the sting out of that hike
But I think this is a dollar-negative event
I think this is a gold-friendly event
The last time the Fed raised interest rates everybody thought that was it – gold would tank
Instead it marked the bottom and we had a huge rally
I think the market will react to the next rate hike in the same way
More and more traders are looking beyond the hikes to the cuts, realizing that any hike is a prelude to a cut
The only reason the Fed is hiking rates is so they can cut them, so it doesn’t even matter if they raise rates because they are not going to stay high for long
Another data point that came out making people think that the Fed is close to a rate hike was the CPI data that came out on Friday
That’s the other data point the Fed is supposed to look at – higher inflation
The Fed wants higher inflation because it is a sign that their policies are working
But, darn it, inflation remains stubbornly low, so the Fed can’t do what they say they want to do
This is actually the nightmare scenario for the Fed
The last thing the Fed wants is higher inflation, in fact, even if inflation is higher, the Fed hopes the government covers it up with their phony CPI numbers
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